REPORTERNET.COM

Forecasts point to the fact that 2012 will be a very difficult year, maybe even more difficult than 2011, if that is even possible.

Assuming that everything runs smoothly according to plan, the recession will continue. Furthermore, measures will undoubtedly be painful due to all that is pending from 2011. In addition, the new memorandum will be added to accompany the loan terms, under the October 26^th agreement. To say the least, we are in an awkward predicament. 

On the other hand, 2012 may signify a year of recovery and departure from the recession, as hitting rock bottom may mean that the light at the end of the tunnel slowly and gradually becomes somewhat visible. This is, of course, due to certain factors: That we stay within the euro currency, that the PSI haircut materializes (bearing in mind that ultimately this could be higher than 50%) and that in terms of the loan agreement, during March-April, we actually receive the 89 billion of the 130 billion euro. This will be used in order to pay bonds that will be reaching their expiration, the public sector’s owed arrears such as salaries and pensions. Another factor is that funding be provided to banks. Alongside all of this, large projects need to be initiated for funds to be released from the NSRF and certain public assets need to be sold off.

Therefore, in both a negative and positive sense, 2012 will seal our fate one way or another. As to how decisive it will be, we will know soon enough with the return of the Troika on the 16^th of January, the timetable which will be set for the implementation of conditions that need to be set for the release of the 89 billion euro and of course our response. If we do actually receive the 89 billion euro, then this signifies that Europe still wants Greece within her fold. 89 billion euro is too large a sum of money to be handed over if they have planned to leave Greece out of the Eurozone and let the country return to the drachma. This depends on us not messing up this situation ourselves as it is apparent that there are many who are inclined to do so.  

Of course, another necessary condition which will get us through 2012, asides from us taking the decision to do so as well as the willingness of our foreign counterparts, is the survival of the euro. The experts’ forecasts conflict and the whole situation very much depends on the markets and Germany. Greece and its political system do not have a chance in influencing Berlin or the markets and anyone who claims that the opposite is true simply isn’t telling the truth. This is akin to believing that if we return to the drachma, we will be relieved of the crisis. If the euro collapses, every one of us will be alone and every man will be fighting for himself. The only thing that we can do is make sure that we stay in the Eurozone and pray that the euro crisis can be overcome. Amen!