Apocalypse Now!
We are all watching breathless the endless unpopular serial of Greece’s negotiations with the troika, wondering whether our political leaders will finally utter “Yes” or raise the flag of the revolution against the foreign “occupiers,” but the true significance of some developments goes amiss.
By Takis Lainas
For a start, European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj’s statement that Greece has exhausted time limits. Second, EC Vice-President Neelie Kroes’s comment that the eurozone can survive a Greek exit. Third, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Junker’s statements that there will be no money after the deadline (i.e., bankruptcy). Fourth –and most important- that Germany and France agreed and are demanding that the Greek bailout money be managed in a special account –a view rather shared by the overwhelming majority of our EU partners.
What is the significance of all this? In my view, that whether we sign or not we are now completely alone. It is abundantly clear that Europe has already worked on all possible scenarios, including that of a Greek bankruptcy. The strong rumors that ECB will participate in the haircut of Greek bonds means that Europeans are resolved to take their money back, hence the special account that we will not be able to touch –to ensure that interest on the loans is paid as scheduled. It’s a mechanism for shielding the rest of the EU from the Greek crisis.
They may give us a few dozen billions to save our banks and settle any other outstanding liabilities, and then leave us to fend for ourselves. How we shall manage our internal liabilities and pay suppliers, wages and pensions will be exclusively our own affair. They are not at all concerned whether and how we shall manage to achieve surplus budgets.
This means that we can do what we like: declare internal bankruptcy whenever we like, adopt a new drachma -or the piaster for that matter- without any gold reserves. Never mind about the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, saying that she wants Greece in the eurozone. In common with our other partners, she is not at all concerned. In other words… Apocalypse Now!
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